What the Latest Auto Care and SEMA Research Says About Aftermarket E-Commerce in 2026
In 2026, the case for investing in automotive aftermarket e-commerce is no longer theoretical. The latest publicly available research from Auto Care Association and SEMA shows a market that continues to expand, while consumer behavior keeps shifting toward digitally influenced buying. Auto Care’s latest public e-commerce forecast projected U.S. aftermarket parts sales to reach about $23 billion in 2025 excluding marketplaces and $44.6 billion including marketplaces, with steady growth expected through 2030. SEMA has likewise said the aftermarket should continue growing at a longer-term pace of roughly 4% to 5% annually, while consumers increasingly split spending between online and offline channels and move fluidly between the two
The automotive aftermarket’s digital shift is not slowing down. According to Auto Care Association’s 2025 Joint E-commerce Trends & Forecast Outlook, U.S. e-commerce sales of aftermarket parts are forecast to reach about $23 billion in 2025 excluding third-party marketplaces, and $44.6 billion including marketplaces. Auto Care also says steady growth is expected through 2030, with total market CAGR exceeding 5%.
That matters because it confirms something many businesses in the industry already feel every day: online is no longer just an “extra channel.” It is now a core part of how parts are researched, compared, and purchased. Even when the final transaction happens through a physical location, distributor, installer, or counter sale, the digital experience is increasingly where the buying journey begins. Auto Care says the percentage of consumers who start their in-store purchasing journey online has grown steadily since 2018.
SEMA’s research points in the same direction. In its 2025 Market Report announcement, SEMA said consumers now split their spending equally between offline and online channels and have fully adopted mixed-mode shopping, including buying online and picking up from a local brick-and-mortar location. SEMA has also described the industry’s longer-term historical growth trend as roughly 4% to 5% annually, even after temporary slowdowns tied to broader economic conditions.
Taken together, these findings send a clear message to resellers, warehouse distributors, brands, and repair-focused businesses: the future is not “online versus offline.” It is omnichannel aftermarket commerce. The winners will be the businesses that can show accurate product data, live availability, pricing, fitment confidence, and fulfillment options wherever the customer happens to be shopping. That conclusion is an inference drawn from Auto Care’s findings on digitally influenced in-store shopping and SEMA’s findings on equal online/offline spend and mixed-mode buying.
Why these numbers matter more than they first appear
The headline number is impressive enough: $44.6 billion including marketplaces is a huge online revenue pool. But the more important takeaway may be the $23 billion outside of marketplaces. That figure shows there is still major demand flowing through branded web stores, independent retailers, specialized e-commerce sellers, and other non-marketplace channels. In other words, Amazon, eBay, and Walmart matter, but they are not the whole story.
For businesses in the aftermarket, that distinction is critical. Marketplaces can create reach, but they also put brands and sellers into direct comparison environments where pricing pressure is intense and customer ownership is limited. A strong direct channel gives businesses more control over merchandising, brand presentation, customer experience, data capture, remarketing, and long-term retention. Auto Care’s forecast suggests that direct and non-marketplace e-commerce is still large enough to justify serious investment.
This is especially important in automotive, where the path to conversion is more complex than in general retail. Customers are not simply buying a T-shirt or a kitchen gadget. They are often trying to answer several questions at once: Will this fit my vehicle? Is it in stock? Can I get it quickly? Should I install it myself or have a shop handle it? Auto Care specifically highlights improvements in logistics, real-time inventory management, and year/make/model/trim compatibility as key reasons the online shopping experience has improved.
The purchase journey is digital long before the checkout button
One of the most important points in the Auto Care report is not just about online sales volume. It is about shopping behavior. The association says more consumers are starting their in-store purchase journey online, which means the web is influencing revenue even when the actual purchase happens elsewhere.
SEMA’s work reinforces that reality. Its 2024 and 2025 market findings show that consumers are comfortable moving between channels, and that mixed-mode shopping is now normal behavior rather than an exception. SEMA also noted that equal shares of aftermarket parts sales were flowing through auto parts chains with physical locations and online specialty retailers in 2023, while different product categories behave differently depending on price, size, complexity, and installation requirements.
That means an aftermarket company cannot think narrowly about “e-commerce” as just an online cart. A site may generate direct sales, but it also supports phone orders, installer relationships, store pickup, lead generation, trust building, fitment research, and product discovery. Even if a customer ultimately wants local advice or professional installation, that customer may still have chosen the brand, part, and seller online first.
What this means for retailers, installers, and brands
For online retailers, the opportunity is obvious: demand is there, and it is still growing. But the bar is higher than it was a few years ago. Basic catalogs and generic web stores are not enough. Customers expect accurate fitment, clean search, reliable availability, transparent pricing, and fast fulfillment. Auto Care’s research makes clear that technology and better operational execution are helping drive channel growth.
For local shops and installers, this trend should not be viewed as a threat. It is a chance to win more business by combining digital convenience with real-world service. SEMA’s mixed-mode findings point directly to this: customers may browse online, compare online, and even buy online, but they still value physical pickup, in-person advice, and installation support. Shops that treat their website like a real storefront instead of a placeholder can capture more of that digitally initiated demand.
For manufacturers and brands, the implication is just as significant. Visibility depends not only on product quality, but on whether products are easy to find, clearly described, correctly mapped to vehicles, and distributed across the right digital channels. In a market where shoppers move fluidly between online research and offline purchase, weak data quality or poor digital presentation can quietly cost sales long before a rep or reseller ever hears about it. That aligns with Auto Care’s emphasis on compatibility data and with SEMA’s longstanding focus on understanding the consumer purchase journey.
At Parts Square, this is exactly why we believe businesses should not think of their digital presence as “just a website.” In the aftermarket, the real challenge is building an operating system that connects fitment, catalog data, vendor inventory, fulfillment logic, search, merchandising, and sales channels into one working ecosystem. That is the difference between simply being online and being equipped to grow online.
Marketplaces matter, but owned channels matter more
The Auto Care forecast is also a reminder that marketplace growth and direct-channel growth can happen at the same time. The “including marketplaces” number is much larger for a reason: marketplaces are a major force in the aftermarket. But the existence of a large non-marketplace segment means businesses should resist the temptation to become overly dependent on rented platforms.
A healthy aftermarket strategy often includes both. Marketplaces can help capture demand and broaden reach. But your branded site is where you control the customer experience, protect margins more effectively, tell your story, build trust, support local fulfillment options, and create long-term customer value. In practical terms, marketplaces should be treated as a supplement, not a substitute, for owned commerce. That conclusion follows from Auto Care’s separate reporting of marketplace-inclusive and marketplace-exclusive e-commerce, alongside SEMA’s broader omnichannel findings.
The real opportunity through 2030
If Auto Care is right that the channel should keep growing steadily through 2030, and SEMA is right that the industry’s longer-term growth trend remains intact, then the next several years are not just about participating in e-commerce. They are about maturing in e-commerce.
The businesses that are likely to benefit most will be the ones that invest in the infrastructure behind the storefront: strong data, fitment accuracy, connected supplier inventory, flexible fulfillment, feed management, search quality, and a customer experience built for how people actually shop now. Because the aftermarket customer in 2026 is not strictly online or offline. They are both. They research in one place, compare in another, buy where it feels easiest, and expect the experience to hold together across all of it.
For companies that want to build for that future, the goal should be simple: own your brand, own your customer relationship, and build a digital foundation strong enough to support direct sales, local selling, and marketplace expansion together. Parts Square helps automotive businesses do exactly that with an integrated platform built for fitment-driven e-commerce, vendor-connected inventory, and omnichannel growth. We also support marketplace expansion through Walmart Marketplace and eBay integrations, with Amazon support planned as part of our roadmap.
